THE IDEA BEHIND THE CURE
I first had the idea for The Cure while writing my third thriller, ONE, which is set in a one-child-policy Britain that restricts its population to reduce climate impacts.
I wondered what might happen at the other extreme, if our population rose sharply.
Not because of increased births. Because of fewer deaths.
What if we discovered the secret to ageing itself, and were able to turn back the clock, doubling or even tripling our lifespan?
What might the consequences be for ourselves and our planet, when resources and space are already running out?
We are the only species that knows we have an expiration date and that has worked out how to delay it.
History shows we have always nurtured a fascination with the idea of eternal youth. From Herodotus, and Alexander the Great’s fabled search for the Fountain of Youth, to legendary quests for the Holy Grail and the philosopher’s Stone: the desire to find a cure for ageing, whether that be elixirs, crystals, supplements or injections has obsessed scientists, artists and kings.
We have already more than doubled our lifespan over the past century, thanks to medical advancements such as antibiotics and vaccines combined with improved nutrition and sanitation.
In 1900, the average global life expectancy of a newborn was 32. Today it is over 73. Evolution has programmed into us an instinct to survive, to reproduce and cheat death as long as we can. The trouble is, this increase in life expectancy has not translated into a healthy old age. There is an increasing gap between healthspan: the proportion of life spent in good health, and lifespan: how long we live.
According to Eileen Crimmins, a professor at the USC Leonard Davis School of Gerontology, health care hasn’t so much slowed the ageing process as it has slowed the dying process.
Many people live their last decades with a poor quality of life suffering from chronic physical and mental conditions and a loss of function.
Global lifespan has risen to 73.4 years, while healthy lifespan lags a decade behind at 63.7 years, according to the WHO’s 2019 estimates. This discrepancy is significantly more marked in the West.
We need a vaccine for degenerative old age.
Enter the science immortalists and biotech pioneers, an influx of start-ups funded by tech, retail and finance billionaires. Their vision is to produce gene therapies and drugs that can revolutionise the ageing process, turn back the clock and cheat death by staving off age-related degenerative disease.
This is not the stuff of fantasy, these are no Indiana Jones quests for the Holy Grail. My fictional therapies in THE CURE are based on scientific research that is happening now, and it is probable that we will see a variation of these age-defying treatments moving beyond clinical trials to market within the next few decades: sooner, if some advocates are to be believed.
Huge sums are being invested in finding a cure for ageing. The pace and quantity of research is accelerating, enabled by genetics, big data and AI.
The longevity industry is predicted to boom, with estimates ranging from $45 billion to $127 billion by 2030.
But there are potential downsides.
Who will ensure that everyone gets access to such treatments which are likely to be very expensive at the outset?
Should medical funding be focused on age reversal when many curable infectious diseases are still so prevalent, particularly in lower income nations?
Should we be preventing young deaths or stretching out old age?
And, given ecologists claim we will soon need two planet earths to sustain us, can the world cope with a human population projected to exceed 10 billion that lives twice as long?
Is it fair that we monopolise resources at the expense of other species when, according to WWF, there has already been a 73% decline in global wildlife populations over the past 50 years? And the planet is weathering the ravages of climate change?
It is these potential future scenarios and corresponding ethical dilemmas that I wanted to explore in The Cure.
You can read more about these dilemmas and the science behind anti-ageing next.
“The invention of ways to increase human longevity is the world’s second-oldest profession, or maybe even the first.
Individuals are going to the bank at this moment with enormous sums of money gained by persuading people that they’ve found either a way to extend your life or to make you immortal.”
— Leonard Hayflick, biomedical researcher, interview with The Lancet 2011