CLIMATE JUSTICE
“Let’s be clear. Our planet is still in the emergency room. We need to drastically reduce emissions now...
Together, let’s not relent in the fight for climate justice and climate ambition. We can and must win this battle for our lives. ”
Whilst researching facts for One, so I could build a world that portrays what the climate crisis might look like, I came across some numbers that shocked me.
I was comparing the CO2 emissions of different countries, specifically looking at per capita emissions.
I realised that it would take one person in Malawi 184 years to generate as many CO2 emissions as an American does in just one year.
It would take that same Malawian 193 years to rack up an Australian’s emissions.
And as for Qatar, which boasts the highest CO2 emissions per capita in the world, it would take them 450 years to equal a Qatari’s emissions.
The poorest half of the global population generates just 10% of emissions. Whereas the richest 10% of people generate over half the world’s emissions.
Consumption is the great divide. And our history is marked by an ever starker gulf between the rich and the poor.
Harsh Realities
According to Oxfam, the number of climate-related disasters has tripled in the past thirty years. These disasters are now the number one driver of internal displacement – forcing millions of people to leave home to seek refuge within the borders of their own country, often to cities that are inequipped to deal with this influx.
Over the past decade, on average more than 20 million people have been displaced each year by extreme weather disasters including cyclones, hurricanes, floods, wildfires and droughts. But with the projected increase in climate disasters, unless we radically accelerate our actions on climate change, soon moving within countries will no longer be possible.
It is estimated that with every degree of temperature increase, roughly 1 billion people will be pushed outside the zone in which humans have lived for thousands of years. People will be forced to migrate across continents to find habitable homes.
“How we manage this global crisis, and how humanely we treat each other as we migrate, will be key to whether this century of upheaval proceeds smoothly or with violent conflict and unnecessary deaths. Managed right, this upheaval could lead to a new global commonwealth of humanity. Migration is our way out of this crisis.”
Even though the global north generates vastly more emissions than other parts of the world, and has been doing for hundreds of years, it is the citizens of Malawi, and hundreds of countries like it, who are suffering and will continue to suffer the consequences of climate change. Despite the fact they have not contributed to this history of industrial escalation and mass consumerism.
Millions of people across Africa and Asia have already lost their homes and their livelihoods. If we reach two degrees of warming, global weather patterns will be even more disrupted leading to further significant increases in extreme weather events that will displace yet more people.
These include prolonged periods of drought and heatwaves interspersed with intense periods of rainfall causing severe flooding, as well as an increase in the frequency of cyclones and hurricanes. This in turn will lead to more wildfires, including peatland fires, releasing methane. Sea level rises caused by thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of glaciers will lead to large tracts of land and entire islands being lost.
All of this will cause the largest human migration ever seen. The UN International Organization for Migration projects there could be 1 billion environmental migrants in the next 30 years. Other estimates say 1.4 billion migrants by 2060.
If we do not hit our carbon emissions targets, continued projected warming in East Africa of up to 5 degrees will have drastic impacts on its population. Agriculture yields will ultimately be halved, and small scale farmers will be the worst hit as they are dependent on rain-fed crops such as maize. Farming will have to be effectively abandoned as rural populations are forced to migrate to cities. Malawi is projected to be one of the worst hit, with a projected 75% decline in productivity.
Many of the worst climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming below 2°C, but the window for action is closing rapidly.
Whilst climate finance funded by wealthier nations has helped some poorer nations cut carbon emissions or adapt to rising temperatures, until recently there was nothing for those who have lost everything.
The agreement of a climate fund for loss and damage at the last COP in 2022 will provide financial assistance to poorer nations hardest hit by climate change. This goes some way to addressing climate injustice, but there is still a long way to go.
And nations have been slow to meet their financial obligations.
The bottom line is that unless we urgently and significantly cut CO2 emissions, we do not stand a hope of staying below 2 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, let alone 1.5 degrees. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that global greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by 43% by 2030 if we are to limit the projected temperature increase to 1.5 degrees.
And that requires significantly stronger commitments and action than we have seen so far.
For more about this, see my blog about Climate Justice.
“A fund for loss and damage is essential – but it’s not an answer if the climate crisis washes a small island state off the map – or turns an entire African country to desert.
The world still needs a giant leap on climate ambition. The red line we must not cross is the line that takes our planet over the 1.5 degree temperature limit. To have any hope of keeping to 1.5, we need to massively invest in renewables and end our addiction to fossil fuels... ”
Further reading/viewing:
Nomad Century: How to Survive the Climate Upheaval by Gaia Vince
An extract from the book is here.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports available here